A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."